The third quarter of the 2010 HFL season is over, and this time owners needed every last point they could get their hands on as Blanner held off Sarah’s quest for a repeat championship by a single point despite getting a whopping zero points from his second round pick. But did he have illegal, collusion-ary help? Who made the most of their draft position? Who made consistently terrible decisions? Who, five years from now, will have the foresight and courage to take “Threetards” first overall? Let’s get to it.
Round One, Pick One
What they took: Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps, by Ellen
Movie score (rank in parentheses): 29 (9)
What they should have taken: Inception
-With the first pick in the draft Ellen showed that her poor judgment is not limited to her choice in men and took the Shia LaBeouf/Michael Douglas’ corpse-starring sequel to a 23-year-old financial thriller, instead of the Leonardo Dicaprio starring big-budget, high-hype sci-fi action thriller directed by Chris Nolan, fresh off the massive success of “The Dark Knight.” But with her future (and now current) husband sitting at pick number two, did Ellen intentionally throw Brian an early wedding gift? And what was her incentive? A popular theory expounded on in secret e-mails obtained by this reporter was that Brian had promised enticing sexual favors to his lady. Once all recipients had had time to stop laughing, no one was sure what the real reason could have been, but in the interest of Ellen’s reputation, we’d like to believe it was something other than faith in the box-office reliability of Oliver Stone.
Overall Value: -8
Round One, Pick Two
What they took: Inception, by Blanner
Movie score: 176 (1)
What they should have taken: Inception
-Like Ellen Page constructing whole cities on the fly, Blanner started constructing his team by taking the top movie of the quarter. In a weird reversal of the events in the movie, Brian’s success was made possible, rather than hindered by, his wife. This, of course, begs a different question about Ellen’s bizarre choice. Were the Blanners in fact playing a huge meta- game with the whole league, subverting and twisting the plot of Inception before our very eyes, only to be revealed once we had seen the movie and the results of the draft?
Overall Value: +1
Round One, Pick Three
What they took: The Last Airbender, by Telthorst
Movie score: 25 (11)
What they should have taken: Despicable Me
-Holy crap. Telthorst wasn’t excited about this pick from the start, saying via e-mail that he felt “like a nerd” for selecting it third overall. But really, at the time, I didn’t blame him too much. It was a big-budget action movie based on an existing franchise. The fact that it was directed by M. Night Shyamalan meant that it would almost certainly be poorly reviewed, but hopefully it could make enough money to make up for it. Well, hope again. Receiving a mere 20 in Metacritic, Airbender was the worst reviewed movie by far this quarter, being edged by 10 points by a movie about cats and dogs with human voices joining forces to overthrow an evil, hairless feline. According the good people at Metacritic, the following movies would have been worth seeing three times rather than seeing Airbender once; Inception, Jack Goes Boating, Despicable Me, Salt, The Town, The Other Guys, Machete, The American, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, Middle Men. Unbelievably, this only dropped Airbender into a tie for the 11th spot in the standings, which should tell you about what we’re in for the rest of the way.
Overall score: -8
Round One, Pick Four
What they took: The Other Guys, by Tim
Movie Score: 65 (4)
What they should have taken: Despicable Me
-Tim could have done better by taking Despicable Me, but still managed to be the first drafter to nail his position exactly, taking the fourth highest scoring movie with the fourth pick. I saw this, contributing at least a millionth of a point to the 24 that Tim beat me by, and I think I speak for everyone who saw it in saying that I much rather would have seen a movie about the two cops played by The Rock and Samuel L. Jackson than the ones played by Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg. Although then we never would have had that sweet death scene, possibly the funniest filmed minute this year that didn’t involve Daniel Tosh or Lethal Weapon 5.
Overall Score: 0
Round One, Pick Five
What they took: The Expendables, by Jesse
Movie Score: 43 (6)
What they should have taken: Despicable Me
-Jesse stuck with his heart, and potentially his head as well with this pick, choosing to take a sure-fire 40 Bustas classic rather than a cartoon, and counting on everyone he knew seeing this movie at least 10 times. What he didn’t expect was that the experience we had seeing this at Blanner’s bachelor party would be so great as to make future viewings seem lacking in comparison. I saw it with Meg and New York Matt a few weeks later, and while it was immense fun, it lacked the unbridled joy of sharing a blend of hyper-violence, homo-eroticism, marginalized female characters, make-believe countries and horrible dialogue with long-time friends and a handle of Mount Gay rum. In retrospect Jesse’s only mistake was believing that more people would be as awesome as all of us.
Overall Score: -1
Round One, Pick Six
What they took: Despicable Me, by Sarah
Movie Score: 155 (2)
What they should have taken: Despicable Me
-Sarah stuck to her winning strategy from Q2 and it paid off huge for her. Despicable Me was the second-best reviewed movie of the quarter and made the second most money. The combination of cartoons appeal to families, Steve Carrell’s star power and those little yellow things that seem to be everywhere made Despicable Me a juggernaut. In fact, Inception and Despicable Me each could have beaten every other team in the league, which would turn out to be a very good thing for both Blanner and Sarah as their drafts took decided turns for the worse after round one. Still, after Toy Story 3 in Q2 and Despicable Me in Q3, the question must be asked; will the rest of us ever learn our lesson?
Overall Score: +4
Round One, Pick Seven
What they took: Predators, by McKenzee
Movie Score: 26 (10)
What they should have taken: Salt
-In a bit of a reverse from Jesse’s “heart over head” choice of Expendables, Kenz took Predators despite her own belief that it would be seen primarily by “idiots.” Presumably she included her boyfriend and his friends in this category, and she would have been right, as this was my next other boozed-up summer movie this year. Unfortunately, Adrien Brody is no Sly Stallone, and Predators, despite getting a 51 (?!?!?) from Metacritic, made just over half of Expendable box office.
Overall Score: -3
Round One, Pick Eight
What they took: Dinner for Schmucks, by Meg
Movie Score: 38 (7)
What they should have taken: Salt
-Meg told me repeatedly that she believed this was one of those movies that showed all the funny parts in the previews, and it seems most of the movie-going public agreed, as it made a mere $67 million. While that’s not terrible, and it got Meg a positive score, it couldn’t hold a candle to Salt, which ultimately didn’t matter since Meg got that too. Could she have picked up Dinner for Schmucks on the way back like she did Salt? Who knows? Who cares? She got them both, and they helped her to a third-place finish.
Overall Score: +1
Round One, Pick Nine
What they took: The Sorceror’s Apprentice, by Kyle
Movie Score: 25 (11)
What they should have taken: Salt
-Remember last quarter, when Kyle’s formula showed us all that Kyle was the best movie drafter? Well, those days are behind us. Siding with his long-time friend Nicolas Cage, Kyle chose a live-action two-hour movie based on a five minute segment of an animated movie from the 30s set to classical music starring the 6th biggest lead from Tropic Thunder over an action film starring the biggest female actress in the world shooting guns and wearing tight pants. Good choice. With back to back picks Kyle failed to equal the score just one selection of Salt would have given him.
Overall Score: -2
Round Two, Pick One (10)
What they took: Eat, Pray, Love, by Kyle
Movie Score: 36 (8)
What they should have taken: Salt
-Kyle missed his second chance to take Salt and instead took Julia Roberts’ return to starring roles. With Javier Bardem, James Franco and plenty of scenery, Kyle figured the movie would rake in female moviegoers and their unfortunate dates and get plenty of Julia-goodwill positive reviews. In fact, neither of those things happened, as the movie made a disappointing $71 million and got tepid reviews. Turns out people aren’t too thrilled about being told how to live their lives by someone who got a hefty advance to write a book about how it’s better to travel the world eating carbs and banging swarthy Mediterranean dudes than it is working behind a desk.
Overall Score: +2
Round Two, Pick Two (11)
What they took: Salt, by Meg
Movie Score: 69 (3)
What they should have taken: Salt
-Meg could have had the third-best movie of the quarter with the 8th overall pick, but just to embarrass her husband and grow her legend she took it 11th instead. Salt looked terrible (and let me assure you, it is), with a black-haired-for-no-reason Angelina Jolie jumping between trucks and staring down Liev Schrieber, and yet still people wanted to see it, with Salt raking in the 4th-most box office dollars of the quarter (and three was Airbender, which really should just be wiped from everyone’s memory).
Overall Score: +8
Round Two, Pick Three (12)
What they took: Middle Men, by Kenz
Movie Score: 0 (25)
What they should have taken: The Town
-Not sure what to say about this one, a movie about the internet-porn industry starring Luke Wilson which failed to crack one million dollars in its first four weeks. I would have thought the combination of sex and a C-list star would have been good for a few bucks, but I would have been wrong. So, since I don’t know what else to say, I’ll say this. This quarter had one movie drafted that was never released, and two other movies get released and still manage to score 0 points. I struggled with how to rank those three movies, ultimately deciding that Middle Men and Jack Goes Boating would share the 25th spot, with The Adjustment Bureau taking 27th and last. My theory is that at least Middle Men and Jack Goes Boating gave their owners a chance to score a point, whereas Adjustment Bureau failed to bring in a single dollar. Let the first great HFL ranking controversy and message board ranting begin!
Overall Score: -13
Round Two, Pick Four (13)
What they took: Resident Evil: Afterlife, by Sarah
Movie Score: 21 (15)
What they should have taken: The Town
-I’m a pretty big zombie fan, and this was a zombie movie in 3-d, so naturally I tried to take it with my third-round pick. Tried, and was rebuffed by the fact that Sarah took it in the second round. A decent pick overall (earning a mere -2) it was still well off the potential of The Town. Had Sarah sided with Ben Affleck and Brinks trucks over Milla Jovavich and post-apocalyptic Vegas, she’d have scored back-to-back titles. As it is, she had to settle for second place.
Overall Score: -2
Round Two, Pick Five (14)
What they took: The Adjustment Bureau, by Jesse
Movie Score: 0 (27)
What they should have taken: The Town (or really, a movie that got released)
-I saw Jesse during the time between this draft and the time that Adjustment Bureau was supposed to come out. A good segment of it filmed in Meg and I’s neighborhood, and the subject came up as we walked through. Jesse was pumped for what he termed the “steal” of the draft. Jesse’s a big Philip K. Dick fan, and an even bigger Philip K. Dick-movie-adaptation fan, so the chance to take the latest Dick-daptation (new word!) starring Matt Damon and the bitchy girl from Devil Wears Prada was too exciting to pass up. I can see him now, constantly hitting refresh on his e-mail page, fingers crossed, praying that no one would get to Bureau before him, worrying that he should have taken it in the first round and been done with it, then, months later, frantically updating IMDB for news on whether or not this movie would ever see the light of day. Well, feat not, young Gato! Adjustment Bureau is slated for a March 4, 2011 release, a mere half a year after the end of this scoring period.
Overall Score: -13
Round Two, Pick Six (15)
What they took: Machete, by Tim
Movie Score: 16 (18)
What they should have taken: The Town
-I know what everyone was thinking when Tim drafted Machete; “sure, a bunch of idiots will go see it, but it’s gonna get trashed in the reviews. Any money you make will be eaten up, Shyamalan-style, by its Metacritic score.” Well, you (and I) were part right. Machete managed a score of only 16, but it wasn’t because critics hated it. It managed a very respectable 60 on Metacritic. Its problem was that no one went to see it. I saw two of this quarters movies drunk, and neither of them was Machete. I’m Machete’s core audience! When you can’t get someone in the door who enjoys laughably bad action movies, has plenty of time, and actually wanted to see Machete, it’s not a good sign for your box office.
Overall Score: -2
Round Two, Pick Seven (16)
What they took: The American, by Telthorst
Movie Score: 21 (15)
What they should have taken: The Town
-Matt went safe with the always-dependable George Clooney starring as a gun-maker and assassin living abroad (Italy? I never saw it) and waiting for “one last job.” The previews made it seem like a serious action movie, something along the lines of the Bourne movies, which made me think this would turn into a huge sleeper this quarter. But, from what I hear, the movie is exceptionally slow and dialogue-driven until the last 15 minutes or so. Once word got out that George was essentially playing a 60-year-old antique dealer instead of an ass-kicking spy, the box office fell apart pretty quick. Still, it got a 61 on Metacritic, one better than Machete!
Overall Score: +1
Round Two, Pick Eight (17)
What they took: Jack Goes Boating, by Blanner
Movie Score: 0 (25)
What they should have taken: The Town
-It’s going to be tough to top Wall Street over Inception for most confusing pick of this draft, but Brian tried awfully hard to give that title to Jack Goes Boating over anything else. As I said earlier, I understand the Middle Men pick to a degree, and Jesse’s love of Dick-daptations made Adjustment Bureau a mortal lock for him (and probably would have worked out if it had been released), but this I didn’t, and don’t, get at all. If I said to you, “hey, let’s go see a movie, your choice. We can see a bank-robbery movie with Ben Affleck; an animated movie about fighting owls; a romantic-comedy with Jen Aniston and Jason Bateman; a graphic-novel adaptation with Michael Cera and crazy effects; an over-the-top piranha attack movie in 3-d; a bank robbery movie with Stringer Bell; a movie about secret agent cats and dogs; an adaptation of a beloved children’s book; the sequel to a movie about a hideous British nanny; a romantic comedy with Justin Long and Drew Barrymore (they’re a couple in real life too!); or “a tale of love, betrayal, friendship and grace” about a limo driver and his fateful blind date; how many of those would you choose before the one about the limo driver? More importantly, how many would you suppose the mass of Americans would choose before the one about the limo driver? I say at least six, maybe all of them, depending on how cool the owls look. Brian said none. In other news, he won the league this quarter. We should all hang our heads in shame.
Overall Score: -8
Round Two, Pick Nine (18)
What they took: The Town, by Ellen
Movie Score: 57 (5)
What they should have taken: The Town
-Ellen nailed it where so many others failed to. The Affleck-directed and –starring bank-robbery movie was a hit with critics and audiences and was the 5th-highest ranked movie of the quarter. However, not all is good news. In light of their respective second picks, doesn’t the case for Brian and Ellen’s rumored collusion become stronger? Brian clearly had no idea what he was doing, as evidenced by Jack Goes Boating, and Ellen must have felt that her superior drafting skills would more than make up for the fact that she didn’t get the lead-pipe lock that was Inception. So she threw her man a bone, took Wall Street 2 and hoped for the best, figuring the worst-case scenario was that Inception proved to be such a juggernaut that even Brian couldn’t screw it up and at least the title would come home with the newly-minted Blanners. And that, my friends, is exactly the way it worked out.
Overall Score: +13
Round Three, Pick One (19)
What they took: Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole, by Ellen
Movie Score: 25 (11)
What they should have taken: Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole
-Ellen nailed it again, getting the highest-scoring third-round pick. Her second-round pick was the second-highest in that round, so had she simply taken Inception this thing would have been wrapped in a bow for her. Her extraordinary success in the last two rounds confirms it beyond a doubt. She handed Brian the title knowingly. If I live to a thousand years old hanging out on that crappy beach with Ken Watanabe nothing will ever convince me I am wrong about this. She took a 3-D animated movie about fighting owls and turned it into a +8 in overall score. She was at the absolute peak of her powers. Had she taken Inception she would have finished with 258 points, meaning in a fall season she would have had enough points to score 2nd in the summer season. We’ve only had two seasons but I’m pretty sure that’s a difficult thing to do. Like Lebron James, I am in awe of her talents and mourn her decision.
Overall Score: +8
Round Three, Pick Two (20)
What they took: The Switch, by Brian
Movie Score: 14 (19)
What they should have taken: Takers
-Brian bounced back from Jack Goes Boating with a modest success. While he should have taken Takers no one can really blame him, because that movie featured Hayden Christiansen in a porkpie hat as a badass bank robber, and performances from TWO rappers turned actors. So it seemed more like a cross of Life as a House and Belly than a box-office success. In other news; did you know this movie was originally titled “The Baster,” after the turkey baster that Amanda Peet jokingly tells Jason Bateman was used to impregnate Jen Aniston? How much more likely would you have been to see that movie? 100 times? 1000?
Overall Score: +1
Round Three, Pick Three (21)
What they took: Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, by Telthorst
Movie Score: 20 (17)
What they should have taken: Takers
-Another success, another person I can’t blame for not being stoked about a Paul Walker-Matt Dillon collaboration. Still, this movie was marketed towards people like me, I wanted to see it, I had time to see it, I didn’t see it. Not a good sign. Well-reviewed, poorly attended seems to be the story of Q3. Speaking of Matt Dillon, his last movie before Takers was Armored, with Laurence Fishburne, who, since Mystic River, has been in Matrix Revolutions, Assault on Precinct 13, M:I 3, was the narrator in TMNT, the voice of the Silver Surfer in Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, 21, was in a string of movies you’ve almost certainly never heard of, Armored, and Predators. Can we stop calling this guy a good actor yet?
Overall Score: +4
Round Three, Pick Four (22)
What they took: Piranha 3D, by Tim
Movie Score: 13 (21)
What they should have taken: Takers
-Tim had a nice, easy narrative this draft. In both rounds two and three he took movies that looked sure to make money off people looking for intentionally unintentional comedy but that would be knocked off by their Metacritic scores. And in both cases the complete opposite happened. Piranha 3D was decently reviewed and made hardly any money. Once again, a movie marketed to me that I did not see. Although it’s a mortal lock to be Netflix streamed after a day of heavy drinking when I decide that I need to do some more heavy drinking with my friend Ving Rhames.
Overall Score: +1
Round Three, Pick Five (23)
What they took: Takers, by Jesse
Movie Score: 24 (14)
What they should have taken: Takers
-Leave it to a fan of The Wire to correctly value Idris Elba’s appeal. Jesse bounced back from the debacle of The Adjustment Bureau to salvage a 7th place finish with Takers. Had he gotten four points from his second-round pick he would have beat me for 6th. As Nick Demere would say, he really got “Dick-ed over.” Get it? Dick-ed over? Like the saying, “dicked over,” meaning to be screwed, but in this case it was by a movie based on a book by a guy named “Dick?” Get it? I’m not sure if you do. You see, most people would say you got “dicked over” if you got screwed by someone or something, like a bad movie choice, which happened in this case. But, also in this case, that dicking over happened through Jesse’s selection of a movie based on a book written by a guy named Philip K. Dick. So, “dicked over” becomes “Dick-ed over,” with high-pitched emphasis on the “Dick.” Get it?
Overall Score: +9
Round Three, Pick Six (24)
What they took: Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, by Sarah
Movie Score: 12 (23)
What they should have taken: Nanny McPhee Returns
-Sarah took the wrong crappy-looking kids-movie-sequel. Still, I was really pissed she took it, as I was hoping for this to be my third-round sleeper. Did you know the first Cats and Dogs made nearly $100 million? Do you realize how many parents must have sat through that with their kids for that to happen, especially considering the reduced price of children’s tickets? Do you realize those same kids were probably old enough by the time of the sequel to not want to see it but to want to see Last Airbender instead? Are you sure you want to have kids?
Overall Score: +1
Round Three, Pick Seven (25)
What they took: Ramona and Beezus, by Kenz
Movie Score: 13 (21)
What they should have taken: Nanny McPhee Returns
-Nice work by Kenz here with a late-draft success story. I guess you can’t go wrong pairing a Disney channel star with a best-selling children’s book. You’re getting the kids and the Latin pedophiles in the theatre no matter what. Also, this movie was a veritable cornucopia of second- or third-tier stars. The aforementioned Disney star (Selena Gomez, the Latina Miley Cyrus), John Corbett (the other dude that Sarah Jessica Parker likes in Sex and the City), Bridget Moynahan (the chick who almost certainly pulled the goalie on Tom Brady), Ginnifer Goodwin (the third wife in Big Love), Sandra Oh (the Asian from Sideways or Grey’s Anatomy, whichever you prefer) and Josh Duhamel (the husband of a pop star who once pissed herself on stage, using the excuse that she didn’t want to make her fans wait for her to take the stage).
Overall Score: +4
Round Three, Pick Eight (26)
What they took: Nanny McPhee Returns, by Meg
Movie Score: 14 (19)
What they should have taken: Nanny McPhee Returns
-Boom! Meg coming through like a freight train out of hell! Between this and Salt Meg was sitting at an overall score of +15. She is also the only drafter to get positive overall scores out of all her movies this draft. Despite drafting second-to-last she managed to finish 3rd overall this quarter. If she ever gets a high draft pick she’s going to be a force to be reckoned with. Then again, let’s not give her too much credit. It’s pretty clear to me that Emma Thompson with warts and crappy teeth is a prototypical success recipe in Hollywood.
Overall Score: +7
Round Three, Pick Nine (27)
What they took: Going the Distance, by Kyle
Movie Score: 9 (24)
What they should have taken: Going the Distance
-Last in draft order, first in your hearts, Kyle took a romantic comedy with Drew Barrymore and Justin Long. Drafting last is great, because worst-case scenario you draft exactly what you should have, since I’m too lazy to find out what movies would have scored better that no one took. Best-case scenario people take movies ahead of you that underperform or don’t get released, and you end up with positive points. Plus you get to claim that you would have dominated had you only had better draft position. A win-win all around. Anyway, was anyone else depressed to see Charlie from “Always Sunny” finally getting on the big screen, only to see that it was in this? What a nightmare.
Overall Score: +3
Sum of Pick Values:
Meg: +16
Ellen: +13
Sarah: +3
Kyle: +3
Tim: -1
Telthorst: -3
Jesse: -5
Blanner: -6
Kenz: -12
So there you have it. From Q2 to Q3 Meg went from worst to best, Kenz dropped from 2nd to last (damn you Luke Wilson!), and not a single one of the three best drafters from Q2 made it that high in Q3 (although Sarah was 4th in Q2 and 3rd in Q3). What does this tell us? Is Meg a sleeping dragon waiting to be unleashed with a top pick in the future? Do any of us know a damn thing? Will we have a quarter where every movie selected gets released? Stay tuned.
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The thing that stuck out to me most about this post is that Kyle does, indeed, have "plenty of time". Excellent recap, tip 'o the cap to you.
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